Handicap Slate · AINFL04 sheet pack
Absolute points from the locked YPP × drives + SOS-D pack
(outputs/nfl/pr-2026-09-07-teams.csv) plus
ep_overlays. Sorted by Total PR descending. Living spec:
docs/plans/nfl/LINE.md.
QB = (μ + pass unit + VORP) × drives.
Pass is the unit without VORP.
Rush / Pass D / Rush D are point adjustments
(Pass/Rush D use SOS-adjusted allowed).
Overlay = summed ep_overlays PPD × drives
(roster / recency / scheme; capped).
Total PR = QB + Rush + Pass D + Rush D + Overlay.
| # | Team | QB | Total PR | QB PR | Pass | VORP | Rush | Pass D | Rush D | Overlay | Drives | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | Sam Darnold | 30.8 | 28.9 | 28.8 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +1.3 | +1.0 | +0.0 | 11.3 | |
| 2 | LA | Matthew Stafford | 29.7 | 27.6 | 27.6 | +0.0 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.0 | 11.1 | |
| 3 | NE | Drake Maye | 29.0 | 27.2 | 27.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +0.5 | +0.0 | 11.1 | |
| 4 | DET | Jared Goff | 27.5 | 26.6 | 26.4 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.3 | −0.0 | +0.0 | 11.1 | |
| 5 | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 26.8 | 24.8 | 23.4 | +1.4 | +2.3 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.0 | 10.6 | |
| 6 | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 26.4 | 25.2 | 24.2 | +1.0 | −1.3 | +1.6 | +0.9 | +0.0 | 11.8 | |
| 7 | DEN | Bo Nix | 26.2 | 23.7 | 23.1 | +0.6 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +0.7 | +0.0 | 11.4 | |
| 8 | JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 25.2 | 24.4 | 24.5 | −0.0 | −0.5 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.0 | 11.3 | |
| 9 | BUF | Josh Allen | 25.1 | 23.9 | 24.2 | −0.4 | +1.6 | +0.7 | −1.0 | +0.0 | 10.4 | |
| 10 | CHI | Caleb Williams | 24.4 | 24.6 | 24.6 | −0.1 | +0.9 | −0.4 | −0.7 | +0.0 | 11.2 | |
| 11 | SF | Brock Purdy | 24.4 | 24.3 | 23.9 | +0.4 | −1.3 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +1.6 | 10.2 | Fred Warner / Nick Bosa back — 2025 D was thin |
| 12 | GB | Jordan Love | 24.3 | 23.7 | 23.7 | −0.0 | −0.4 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +0.0 | 9.9 | |
| 13 | DAL | Dak Prescott | 23.8 | 25.0 | 25.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −1.5 | −0.4 | +0.0 | 10.6 | |
| 14 | ATL | Tua Tagovailoa | 23.3 | 22.7 | 23.5 | −0.8 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.0 | 11.0 | |
| 15 | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 23.0 | 21.8 | 20.1 | +1.7 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +0.8 | 10.0 | Kenneth Walker III |
| 16 | IND | Daniel Jones | 22.7 | 25.1 | 23.5 | +1.7 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −3.0 | 10.2 | last-6 2025 pass YPP crater vs full season (×0.5 shrink);… |
| 17 | LAC | Justin Herbert | 22.7 | 21.2 | 20.4 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +1.0 | 10.4 | Mike McDaniel OC — human scheme bump (2025 offense was 23… |
| 18 | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 22.0 | 22.7 | 22.5 | +0.1 | −0.5 | +0.8 | +0.3 | −1.3 | 10.7 | A.J. Brown to NE |
| 19 | TB | Baker Mayfield | 21.7 | 22.8 | 22.4 | +0.3 | −0.7 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.0 | 11.1 | |
| 20 | NO | Tyler Shough | 21.6 | 22.5 | 21.6 | +0.9 | −1.8 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.0 | 10.6 | |
| 21 | PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 21.4 | 21.5 | 21.4 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.0 | 10.7 | |
| 22 | CIN | Joe Burrow | 21.3 | 22.6 | 22.0 | +0.6 | −0.4 | −1.1 | −1.2 | +1.5 | 10.7 | Dexter Lawrence / Boye Mafe defensive adds |
| 23 | MIN | Kyler Murray | 21.3 | 19.0 | 20.3 | −1.3 | +0.5 | +1.2 | +0.6 | +0.0 | 11.1 | |
| 24 | LV | Kirk Cousins | 19.9 | 21.7 | 18.7 | +3.0 | −2.1 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +0.0 | 10.7 | |
| 25 | ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 19.8 | 21.0 | 20.3 | +0.8 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.0 | 10.4 | |
| 26 | NYJ | Geno Smith | 19.5 | 20.2 | 16.9 | +3.2 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.1 | +0.0 | 11.0 | |
| 27 | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 19.3 | 20.1 | 21.5 | −1.4 | +0.8 | −0.9 | −0.7 | +0.0 | 10.0 | |
| 28 | CAR | Bryce Young | 19.3 | 19.6 | 19.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.0 | 10.1 | |
| 29 | NYG | Jaxson Dart | 18.4 | 20.2 | 21.4 | −1.2 | −0.3 | +0.0 | −1.6 | +0.0 | 10.2 | |
| 30 | MIA | Malik Willis | 17.9 | 21.5 | 21.5 | +0.0 | +0.8 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −3.4 | 10.5 | Hill/Waddle 2025 target share off the unit (teardown); Ha… |
| 31 | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 17.3 | 19.2 | 19.2 | +0.0 | −1.5 | +1.5 | +0.2 | −2.1 | 11.7 | Myles Garrett to LA — Pass D still carries 2025 unit |
| 32 | TEN | Cam Ward | 16.3 | 18.3 | 17.8 | +0.4 | −0.5 | −1.1 | −0.3 | +0.0 | 11.0 |